How unprecedented weather has effected the seed market
Years of drought, sub-optimal harvest yields, wildfires and other adverse market conditions have resulted in a seed market with short supplies and high prices.
Back in May we published a blog post to bring your attention to the seed shortage and higher prices anticipated for 2021. The year is drawing to a close and we thought an update would provide our customers with valuable information. Crops are in (mostly) and we can more accurately measure the market. There is a seed shortage, and prices are at an all time high. How did it happen, and how does it effect you? This post will address those questions.
How the shortage started:
To understand current market conditions you have to go back a few years. The Western United States has been in a drought for more than a decade. The last three years were particularly difficult because the adverse effects were cumulative – we were adding bad years on top of bad years. Each year the effects were compounded, the adversity has been a downward spiral. A large percentage of forage and reclamations grasses and legumes are produced in the West – specifically Washington and Oregon – so the drought had an adverse effect an a huge segment of the market.
In addition to drought there were record wildfires. These wildfires did not burn production fields in most cases, but the fires had a dramatic indirect effect on seed production. Evacuations prevented farmers from harvesting their fields. In other cases the smoke prevented sunlight from getting through during flowering and pollination. In other areas the thick smoke and ash created fungus and other strange phenomena that reduced seed production.
What happened in 2021?
At the beginning of 2021 warehouses were short-stocked from years of poor yield. The year appeared to be off to a good start with above average rainfall and stable weather. Producers were cautiously optimistic. The chatter in the industry was that it would take a banner production year just to offset previous poor years and keep up with current demand. It would take several banner years to get ahead. There was hope 2021 would be a banner year.
Then, just as grass and clover production fields were beginning to flower, record high temperatures rolled across the pacific northwest. The Willamette Valley south of Portland had a record-breaking ten consecutive days above 105 F and one day at 117 F. It was unprecedented and devastating. Farmers reported watching clover blossoms emerge in the morning, then wilt and fall off in the afternoon. The heat was so intense that it literally cooked the plants during the the reproductive process. Grasses suffered the same fate.
The effects on our current market:
The market naturally responded by taking inventory of the seed left in warehouses. Anticipated crop numbers were dismal, and growers were reluctant to set prices knowing yields could be off as much as 70%. Distributors held prices high and were reluctant to offer ANY seed for sale. Prices began to climb, and they climbed all the way through summer and into fall. The end result was record high prices on common items that form the backbone of pasture mixes and forage grasses.
Our advise looking forward:
It is never pleasant to buy a product when prices are high. But in the current market it’s probably the best thing you can do. Buy now if you can. We do not anticipate market prices will go back down over the next 12-18 months. To wait means to pay more money in the spring, or risk not getting the seed you want. Whether you buy seed from Great Basin Seed or another trusted vendor, talk frankly with them and make an educated decision. We suggest you follow the advise of our friend Don Baune, found i the article below – “Plan ahead. Plan WAY ahead”.
DO NOT plan on “business as usual”.
Below is a list of items that are either in short supply and priced high. Note that the list is comprised of the most basic components of dryland and irrigated pasture mixes.
Perennial Ryegrass (Forage Type) – very short supply, price high
Perennial Ryegrass (Turf Type) – very short supply, price high
Meadow Bromegrass – very short supply, price high
Smooth Bromegrass – very short supply, price high
Slender Wheatgrass – short supply, price high
Intermediate Wheatgrass – short supply, price high
Crested Wheatgrass – price high
Sherman and Sandberg Bluegrasses – price high
Needle and Threadgrass – very short supply, price high
Thickspike Wheatgrass – price high
Sodar Streambank Wheatgrass – price high
Pubescent Wheatgrass – very short supply, price high
Indian Ricegrass – short supply, price high
Russian Wildrye – short supply, price high
Timothy- very short supply, price high
Kentucky Bluegrass (Turf Types) – very short supply, price high
Tall Fescue (Turf Type) – very short supply, price high
Lawn and Turf/Sports Field Blends – very short supply, price high
